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The software utility, eVote and the eVote clerk, injects true democracy and deliberation into our real-world landscape.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

BACKGROUND: NEW HAMPSHIRE'S UNAUDITED DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

The analysis of the National Election Data Archive
http://electionarchive.org/ucvData/NH/DemPrimary2008-PairedPrecinctStudy.pdf

"The Diebold Effect": Hillary's Votes Higher From Diebold Machines
Even Controlling for Demographics (education, income, population, etc)
http://scienceblogs.com/developingintelligence/2008/01/the_diebold_effect_hillarys_vo.php

NEW HAMPSHIRE RECOUNT SO FAR - FINDS ERRORS IN INSUFFICIENT AMOUNTS TO
REVERSE THE OUTCOME

NH Recount Finds Vote Count Errors, by Steven Rosenfeld, AlterNet.
January 17, 2008.

So far the errors highlight problems with electronic voting, but don't overturn Clinton's surprise victory.
http://www.alternet.org/democracy/74102/

To see the discrepancies between machine and hand counts - the NH SOS recount page:
http://www.sos.nh.gov/recountresults.htm

RECOUNT OF THE 2008 NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY ELECTION

Kucinich has decided to ask for a partial hand recount of New Hampshire's machine counts. My analysis shows that to confirm New Hampshire's close margin (less than 3% difference between Obama and Clinton) Democratic primary election results, a partial hand count would need to randomly select and hand count from 34% to 45% of New Hampshire's precincts - from 61 to 178 precincts - to give 95% confidence-level in the New Hampshire outcomes, depending on initial assumptions. The reason that this New Hampshire race requires such a large audit is due to the small race margin and the extreme variation in precinct sizes in New Hampshire - from 5,542 votes to 1 vote cast in each precinct. See the worksheet "95%Confidence-Level-Amt" in
http://electionarchive.org/ucvData/NH/Primary2008/NH2008Primary.xls

U.S. Representative Kucinich asks for a Recount of NH machine counts in the interest of election integrity
http://www.dennis4president.com/go/homepage-items/kucinich-asks-for-new-hampshire-recount-in-the-interest-of-election-integrity/

Kucinich is asking for donations to pay for the Democratic Primary recount
http://www.usalone.com/kucinich_constitution.php

A place to donate for the Republican Primary recount (Albert Howard) Nearly $60,000 isbeing charged to Howard who is a Black-American limousine driver and father of eight from Ann Arbor.
http://grannywarrior.chipin.com/recount

Recount cost could climb to $125,000 - New hand tally would start tomorrow
http://www.concordmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080115/FRONTPAGE/801150398

QUESTIONS THE PRESS COULD ASK DURING EACH ELECTION ARE:

Does this state conduct any publicly observable post-election independent manual counts to check the accuracy of machine counts? (This would require voter-created, or at least voter-checked, paper ballots.)

Were the detailed vote count data and raw polling data made publicly available immediately after the election for analysts to detect any possible suspicious patterns?

Were the invisibly-machine-counted vote counts checked? Are the machine counts provably correct?

Is there public oversight over chain of custody procedures for election records and ballots?

What are the state's procedures for securing paper ballot and election records; and how may the public participate?

DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYZING THE NEW HAMPSHIRE JANUARY 8, 2008 PRIMARY
ELECTION RESULTS

National Election Data Archive
http://electionarchive.org/ucvData/NH/2008Primary/

SOME NEW ARTICLES ON THE NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY ELECTION

Guest Editorial: Live Free or Diebold
by Julian Davis‚ Jan. 14‚ 2008
http://www.beyondchron.org/articles/Guest_Editorial_Live_Free_or_Diebold_5264.html

Recounts good test of voting integrity, Editorial in Nashua Telegraph
http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080114/OPINION01/609682470/-1/opinion

Silvestro the cat [who programs NH voting machines]/ NH voting
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiiaBqwqkXs

New Hampshire Exit Poll, LA Times, January 14, 2008
http://www.latimes.com/la-exitpoll-nh-graphic,0,7161708.htmlstory?coll=la-home-center

Chris Matthews Reported Mid-day polls put Obama ahead
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Jo4pwCG23c

New Hampshire Recount Information
http://www.democracyfornewhampshire.com/node/view/5344

Ron Paul's campaign is finding suspicious discrepancies in the counts
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qV6qAGigGYY&eurl=http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=120&topic_id=3779

Candidates say they can pay for recounts
http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080115/NEWS08/383047012/-1/news

Kucinich Asks for New Hampshire Recount in the Interest of Election Integrity
By Dennis Kucinich Media Release January 10, 2008
http://www.votetrustusa.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2711&Itemid=94

Let recount show N.H. gets its vote tallies right, Jan. 17
http://www.seacoastonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080117/OPINION/801170392/-1/NEWS19

Correction re: NH recount, HOW DOES NEW HAMPSHIRE'S RECOUNT CULTURE
FACILITATE RATHER THAN DETER ELECTION RIGGING? by Mark Crispin Miller
http://markcrispinmiller.blogspot.com/2008/01/correction-re-nh-recount.html

FYI: MOVING ON TO MARYLAND (WHICH, LIKE SOUTH CAROLINA, USES PAPERLESS
E-BALLOTS)

Company Connected to GOP and Romney Delivers Diebold Machines to Maryland Polls by Kim Zetter Email January 17, 2008
http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/2008/01/company-connect.html


PLEASE DONATE

US Count Votes, DBA National Election Data Archive urgently needs your donations if it is to continue its work to try to obtain public oversight over the integrity of election results via mandatory routine vote count audits and public access to election records and election data, and public oversight over ballot security procedures. Donating money to get out the vote efforts, to political candidates, or to efforts to educate voters on issues, makes little difference if votes
are not accurately counted. NEDA can not continue its efforts without funding.

http://electionarchive.org/fairelection/donate.html

THANK YOU. PLEASE PASS ON THIS ANNOUNCEMENT.

CONTACT: Kathy Dopp kathy@electionarchive.org 435-658-4657

--

Kathy Dopp, Executive Director, The National Election Data Archive

P.O. Box 682556
Park City, UT 84068
phone 435-658-4657

1 Comments:

  • At 2:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Correction: I had too hastily did not adjust the formulas to calculate
    the total number of precincts in my spreadsheet which calculates audit
    amounts to achieve 95% confidence-level (and I have a painful migraine
    today which I hope excuses my earlier error).

    The correct amount of a New Hampshire vote count audit to achieve 95%
    confidence level is from 35% to 45% of New Hampshire's precincts -
    from 82 to 106 of randomly-selected New Hampshire precincts out of a
    total of 236 precincts.

    Please accept my apologies for my mistakes. Below is the corrected
    announcement in full:

    -

    BACKGROUND: NEW HAMPSHIRE'S UNAUDITED DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
    MACHINE-COUNTED ELECTION RESULTS SEEM SUSPICIOUS

    The analysis of the National Election Data Archive
    http://electionarchive.org/ucvData/NH/DemPrimary2008-PairedPrecinctStudy.pdf

    "The Diebold Effect": Hillary's Votes Higher From Diebold Machines
    Even Controlling for Demographics (education, income, population, etc)
    http://scienceblogs.com/developingintelligence/2008/01/the_diebold_effect_hillarys_vo.php

    NEW HAMPSHIRE RECOUNT SO FAR - FINDS ERRORS IN INSUFFICIENT AMOUNTS TO
    REVERSE THE OUTCOME

    NH Recount Finds Vote Count Errors, by Steven Rosenfeld, AlterNet.
    January 17, 2008.
    So far the errors highlight problems with electronic voting, but don't
    overturn Clinton's surprise victory.
    http://www.alternet.org/democracy/74102/

    To see the discrepancies between machine and hand counts - the NH SOS
    recount page:
    http://www.sos.nh.gov/recountresults.htm

    RECOUNT OF THE 2008 NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY ELECTION

    Kucinich has decided to ask for a partial hand recount of New
    Hampshire's machine counts. My analysis shows that to confirm New
    Hampshire's close margin (less than 3% difference between Obama and
    Clinton) Democratic primary election results, a partial hand count
    would need to randomly select and hand count from 35% to 45% of New
    Hampshire's precincts - from 82 to 106 of randomly-selected New
    Hampshire precincts - to give 95% confidence-level in the New
    Hampshire outcomes, depending on initial assumptions. The reason that
    this New Hampshire race requires such a large audit is due to the
    small race margin and the extreme variation in precinct sizes in New
    Hampshire - from 5,542 votes to 1 vote cast in each precinct. See the
    worksheet "95%Confidence-Level-Amt" in
    http://electionarchive.org/ucvData/NH/Primary2008/NH2008Primary.xls

    U.S. Representative Kucinich asks for a Recount of NH machine counts
    in the interest of election integrity
    http://www.dennis4president.com/go/homepage-items/kucinich-asks-for-new-hampshire-recount-in-the-interest-of-election-integrity/

    Kucinich is asking for donations to pay for the Democratic Primary recount
    http://www.usalone.com/kucinich_constitution.php

    A place to donate for the Republican Primary recount (Albert Howard)
    Nearly $60,000 isbeing charged to Howard who is a Black-American
    limousine driver and father of eight from Ann Arbor.
    http://grannywarrior.chipin.com/recount

    Recount cost could climb to $125,000 - New hand tally would start tomorrow
    http://www.concordmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080115/FRONTPAGE/801150398

    QUESTIONS THE PRESS COULD ASK DURING EACH ELECTION ARE:

    Does this state conduct any publicly observable post-election
    independent manual counts to check the accuracy of machine counts?
    (This would require voter-created, or at least voter-checked, paper
    ballots.)

    Were the detailed vote count data and raw polling data made publicly
    available immediately after the election for analysts to detect any
    possible suspicious patterns?

    Were the invisibly-machine-counted vote counts checked? Are the
    machine counts provably correct?

    Is there public oversight over chain of custody procedures for
    election records and ballots?

    What are the state's procedures for securing paper ballot and election
    records; and how may the public participate?

    DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYZING THE NEW HAMPSHIRE JANUARY 8, 2008 PRIMARY
    ELECTION RESULTS

    National Election Data Archive
    http://electionarchive.org/ucvData/NH/2008Primary/

    SOME NEW ARTICLES ON THE NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY ELECTION

    Guest Editorial: Live Free or Diebold
    by Julian Davis‚ Jan. 14‚ 2008
    http://www.beyondchron.org/articles/Guest_Editorial_Live_Free_or_Diebold_5264.html

    Recounts good test of voting integrity, Editorial in Nashua Telegraph
    http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080114/OPINION01/609682470/-1/opinion

    Silvestro the cat [who programs NH voting machines]/ NH voting
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiiaBqwqkXs

    New Hampshire Exit Poll, LA Times, January 14, 2008
    http://www.latimes.com/la-exitpoll-nh-graphic,0,7161708.htmlstory?coll=la-home-center

    Chris Matthews Reported Mid-day polls put Obama ahead
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Jo4pwCG23c

    New Hampshire Recount Information
    http://www.democracyfornewhampshire.com/node/view/5344

    Ron Paul's campaign is finding suspicious discrepancies in the counts
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qV6qAGigGYY&eurl=http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=120&topic_id=3779

    Candidates say they can pay for recounts
    http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080115/NEWS08/383047012/-1/news

    Kucinich Asks for New Hampshire Recount in the Interest of Election Integrity
    By Dennis Kucinich Media Release January 10, 2008
    http://www.votetrustusa.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2711&Itemid=94

    Let recount show N.H. gets its vote tallies right, Jan. 17
    http://www.seacoastonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080117/OPINION/801170392/-1/NEWS19

    Correction re: NH recount, HOW DOES NEW HAMPSHIRE'S RECOUNT CULTURE
    FACILITATE RATHER THAN DETER ELECTION RIGGING? by Mark Crispin Miller
    http://markcrispinmiller.blogspot.com/2008/01/correction-re-nh-recount.html

    FYI: MOVING ON TO MARYLAND (WHICH, LIKE SOUTH CAROLINA, USES PAPERLESS
    E-BALLOTS)

    Company Connected to GOP and Romney Delivers Diebold Machines to
    Maryland Polls by Kim Zetter EmailJanuary 17, 2008
    http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/2008/01/company-connect.html


    PLEASE DONATE

    US Count Votes, DBA National Election Data Archive urgently needs your
    donations if it is to continue its work to try to obtain public
    oversight over the integrity of election results via mandatory routine
    vote count audits and public access to election records and election
    data, and public oversight over ballot security procedures. Donating
    money to get out the vote efforts, to political candidates, or to
    efforts to educate voters on issues, makes little difference if votes
    are not accurately counted. NEDA can not continue its efforts without
    funding.

    http://electionarchive.org/fairelection/donate.html

    THANK YOU. PLEASE PASS ON THIS ANNOUNCEMENT.

    CONTACT: Kathy Dopp kathy@electionarchive.org 435-658-4657

    --

    Kathy Dopp, Executive Director, The National Election Data Archive

    P.O. Box 682556
    Park City, UT 84068
    phone 435-658-4657

    http://utahcountvotes.org
    http://electionmathematics.org
    http://electionarchive.org

    History of Confidence Election Auditing Development & Overview of
    Election Auditing Fundamentals
    http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/paper-audits/History-of-Election-Auditing-Development.pdf

    Vote Yes on HR811 and S2295
    http://electionmathematics.org/VoteYesHR811.pdf

    Voters Have Reason to Worry
    http://utahcountvotes.org/UT/UtahCountVotes-ThadHall-Response.pdf

    "Enlighten the people generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body
    and mind will vanish like evil spirits at the dawn of day," wrote
    Thomas Jefferson in 1816

     

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